Swell Update: Official Surf Forecast for the Reef Hawaiian Pro
2012 event champion Sebastian Zietz will return to defend his title at the Reef Hawaiian Pro this season.
HALEIWA, Oahu/Hawaii (Monday, November 11, 2013) - The waiting period for the first jewel of the Vans Triple Crown commences November 12 with the ASP Prime rated Reef Hawaiian Pro at the high performance righthander of Haleiwa. The 31st annual Vans Triple Crown of Surfing attracts the world’s best to the seven mile miracle of Oahu’s North Shore and for the next six weeks, top ASP talent will do battle on surfing’s proving grounds. Surfline.com, official forecasters for the three stop series, have given a detailed breakdown of what to expect for the opening days of the Reef Hawaiian Pro waiting period.
BRIEF OVERVIEW: Solid N swell will build in and be strongest on Wednesday before fading Thursday. A reinforcing pulse of N swell builds late Thursday and continues Friday morning. While that does not look as strong as the Wednesday swell, it will still offer strong surf. Wind will be mostly light Wed-Fri, with the possibility of heavy showers developing for Thur/Fri.
NOTE – The swell for Wed-Fri will be partially shadowed for Haleiwa and will be roughly half the size of the standout exposed breaks. However, with the swell being very significant for the North Shore, we’re still looking at solid surf at Haleiwa.
WEDNESDAY 13th: Solid N swell fills in
SWELL/SURF: Well overhead to double overhead+ surf, with larger sets pushing 15’+ faces. Consistent/pumping swell.
WIND/WEATHER: Light E wind 5-9kts in the morning. Watch for a sea breeze to develop in the afternoon. Partly sunny with some passing showers.
THURSDAY 14th: N swell fades from Wed
SWELL/SURF: Overhead to a few overhead. Largest sets still near double overhead in the morning.
WIND: Light ENE/NE wind in the morning, with more variable wind in the afternoon with a possible sea breeze. More widespread showers, heavy at times.
FRIDAY 15th: Reinforcing N swell
SWELL/SURF: Smaller than Wed, but still potential for overhead to well overhead/double overhead surf on the sets. Stay tuned, this is still dependent on storm behavior.
WIND: Light ENE/NE in the morning with a seabreeze potentially developing in the afternoon. Widespread showers, heavy at times.
SATURDAY 16th: Fading/much smaller N swell
SWELL/SURF: Still looks pretty fun and very contestable with surf in the shoulder-head high range possible in the morning. Stay tuned.
WIND: ENE trades gradually rebuilding. Weather should be drying out as compared to Thur/Fri. Stay tuned.
SUNDAY 17th: Much smaller N swell leftovers
SWELL/SURF: Dropping below waist high.
WIND: Light to moderate ENE trades.
SWELL/SURF INITIAL OUTLOOK
We’re seeing the new N swell (340-010) spiking on the outer buoys this afternoon. Drifting Buoy 5100, which is roughly a 16-20 hour indicator of N swell for the North Shore from its current position is reading 16’ at 19 seconds as of 4PM. The swell is now rapidly building on Buoy 01 (check the ‘swell period’ tab), which is roughly a 6-10 hour indicator of surf for the North Shore from this direction/swell period.
This swell will rapidly build in overnight. This will be a consistent, rather ‘raw’ feeling swell thanks to the proximity of the high/low combo that created it and the track that it took. Thursday will be down from Wednesday but still strong.
The reinforcing pulse of N swell that we have been watching for the second half of the week is starting to become a little more clear. At this point it looks like we’ll see this swell primarily on Friday and, while it does not look as strong as the Wednesday swell, still looks likely to offer solidly overhead surf at Haleiwa on Friday.
We will be in a fading/dropping trend over the weekend of the 16th-17th and through Tuesday the 19th. Saturday will still see fun surf, but Sun-Tue looks quite small.
Going further out, we continue to watch for a possible mid size NNW swell to develop for the 20th-22nd time frame. The exact swell direction and size is still pretty low confidence as we continue to see some differences on the track/strength of the storm on the more trusted global wind models. It does look like contestable surf, but certainly smaller than the Wed-Fri surf. Stay tuned we will refine this forecast over the next few days.
WIND/WEATHER
A cut off low will migrate to an area north of the islands for the middle to second half of the week and we will be under the influence of a weak pressure gradient. Light ENE/NE wind in the mornings will give way to a sea breeze in the afternoons. Note also that we will likely see the return of widespread and, at times, heavy rain on Thur/Fri.
For the weekend we’re looking at the temporary return of light to moderate ENE trades. We should also dry out from Thur/Fri. Stay tuned.
Next Update: Wednesday evening, Nov 13th
Check out the online version of this forecast here.
Source:
Swell Update: Official Surf Forecast for the Reef Hawaiian Pro
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Thema: [ASP News] Swell Update: Official Surf Forecast for the Reef Hawaiian Pro (Gelesen 1907 mal)
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